My gut tells me that President Obama is fairly safe in his upcoming bid for a second term as President of the United States. To beat an incumbent for the White House, much like heavyweight boxing, you’ve got to knockout out the champ and not just last 12 rounds. If you don’t believe me, see Kerry for President 2004. Bush was knocked down a few times, but Kerry did not overcome the power of the incumbent.
Regardless of my amateur intuition, the New York Times published an interesting story today that a new poll confirms what my gut was telling me. Republicans would have an uphill battle beating President Obama as it is and on top of that, GOP candidates are not particularly exciting either. With all due respect to former Gov. Huckabee, if he is the only candidate with favorables above 50%, that is not a recipe for winning. Again, he’s an interesting person and candidate to be sure, but even his popularity with libertarians is not enough to carry moderates and independents. Plus, his talk show on Fox News will not help much. That’s alot of hours of tape and many quotes that can be easily looped on cable news or, dare I say, taken out of context.
Given that scenario, perhaps Obama/Biden 2012 can run an efficient and successful campaign without spending $1 billion. Not likely. Go big or go home, right?
Oh well, at least the article was intersting. Check it out:
I’m hoping to write more on 2012 this weekend, but felt that I should pass this along before it is removed from the front page or forgotten.